THREAT TO GLOBAL SURVIVAL?

A Case Study of Land Use and Transportation Patterns in Chinese Cities

BY JEFF KENWORTHY AND GANG HU
Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University

Photos by Gang Hu

Urban form and land use patterns
Some methodological issues
How do Chinese cities compare in land use characteristics?
Provision for the automobile
Automobile ownership and usage
Transport patterns
Traffic Safety

Issue 1: Acquiring the immense amount of land and capital investment required in infrastructure to accommodate a massive automobile fleet
Issue 2: The environmental impacts of automobile dependence
Issue 3: Finding the oil needed to feed huge numbers of vehicles, and the cost of this in the next century
Issue 4: Urban livability

Land Use Constraint by the Land Management Law
Urban Planning Law and Regulations
Environmental Law and the National Ambient Air Quality Standard
Public Transport Policy

Private Cars
Walking and Cycling
Public Transport

1. Background

With China's economy booming, a depressing question has been raised in the urban transport sector about whether human life and global sustainability will suffer severe decline if China, the largest country on the earth, were to increase its urban automobile ownership and usage to the current US level (Hook and Ernst, 1999).

A planner at one large auto company believes that "there could be 70 million motorcycles, 30 million lorries and 100 million cars in China by 2015" (Hook and Replogle, 1996). "The potential effects of this car explosion - on the quality of human life and the sustainability of all life - are staggering" (Tunali, 1996). Today, transportation accounts for 15-20 percent of the annual 6 billion tons of carbon emissions from human activities that are leading to climate change. By 2030, China is expected to have 828 million city dwellers. If they were to drive as much as the average American, "the carbon emissions from transportation in urban China alone would exceed 1 billion tons, roughly as much as released from all transportation worldwide today" (Worldwatch Institute, 1999). "If China attains its dream of a car for every family, the resulting emissions could increase carbon concentrations to an extent that would affect the entire world and offset emissions reductions achieved in other countries" (Tunali, 1996), and "the implications for global warming and energy consumption are truly harrowing" (Hook and Replogle, 1996). Hook and Ernst (1999) state that : "Because of China's immense population, small changes in assumptions about China's motorization could throw future global oil demand projections and greenhouse gas emissions estimates off by 100%" (p7).

As is well known, emissions from vehicles which cause concern are carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), the volatile organic compounds (VOCs), lead, particulates and smoke. A study carried out for the British Government (Brown, 1994) suggested that up to 10,000 people each year are killed by exhaust fumes in England and Wales. In Bangkok, more than 1 million inhabitants (more than 10 per cent of the metropolitan population) are suffering from respiratory illnesses due to air pollution. And the lung cancer rate is up to two times higher than those of the rest of Thailand (Magistad, 1991; Setchell, 1992). Moreover, the average child has lost four intelligence points by the age of seven due to the poisonous lead in the air (Earth 2000, 1992).

In the US, transportation activities in the late 1980s consumed about $700 billion, or 18 percent of the US GNP (Casler and Hannon, 1989; Davis et al., 1989). In 1999, it still maintains the same level (Hook and Ernst, 1999). The largest expenditures were for motor vehicles and auto repair -- $187 billion and $94 billion, respectively. The cost of petroleum to fuel the sector is estimated at $48 billion. Expenditures for highways and streets amounted to $32 billion for both new construction and repairs, while local transit construction and repairs amounted to $2 billion. By contrast, China consumes only 2% of its GNP on transport (Hook and Ernst, 1999).

Although there is a large expenditure on roads every year, road congestion in the peak, and in many cases the off-peak, is still at crisis point in the United States. Already two-thirds of the rush-hour travelers on urban interstate highways experience delays. Americans spend one billion hours a year stuck in traffic, wasting two billion gallons of gasoline and costing the economy anywhere from $10 billion to $30 billion (Gordon, 1996). The US General Accounting Office has calculated that if present trends continue, road congestion in the United States will triple in only 15 years even if capacity is increased by 20 percent, a goal that is unlikely to be achieved (quoted in Gordon, 1996).

It would be a disaster, not only for China itself, but also for the entire world, if China devastates its physical and social environments in the way that much of the developed world has been doing through its extreme dependence on the automobile. The global and local concerns that lie behind trends in motorization in China are the motivation for this paper. The research presented here therefore attempts to develop a deeper insight into the scenarios for Chinese urban transport by asking the following key questions:

• What is the current situation in Chinese cities compared internationally to a large sample of other cities, in terms of land-use, transport infrastructure, transport patterns, motor vehicle ownership and usage, transport energy consumption and transport externalities?

• What are the key factors in shaping Chinese urban transport and land-use, and would Chinese cities develop along a path of automobile dependence in a period of rapid economic growth and modernization?

• How would China integrate its urban development and transport policies in shaping sustainable urban transport and land-use?

2. A Comparative Overview of Land Use and Transport Patterns in Chinese Cities

Urban form and land use patterns

Before presenting some basic comparative land use data on Chinese cities, it is necessary to qualify a few issues concerning how to compare Chinese cities with their international counterparts.

Some methodological issues

A useful way of presenting this discussion is to consider the fundamental issue of a city's urban density. Urban density is one of the most important factors in determining a city's level of car use, energy use and the viability of public transport, walking and cycling (Newman and Kenworthy, 1989, 1999). Urban density takes for its denominator the total built-up land (residential, commercial, and industrial land etc, plus roads and streets). It excludes rural land, forests, large areas of contiguous undeveloped or vacant land, regional scale open spaces, but not local open spaces). Higher urban densities, and the mixed land uses which are associated with them, shorten the length of trips by all modes, make walking and cycling possible for more trips and create sufficient concentrations of activities for an effective, frequent public transport service (Newman and Kenworthy, 1999; Kenworthy and Laube et al, 1999).

There are some problems in directly comparing Chinese cities with other international cities because of the urban form and some unique definitions in the Chinese statistical system, though in the final analysis these problems do not prevent worthwhile comparisons with other cities. In some ways the problems faced are similar to the urban data collection problems in many western and other Asian cities.

In China, statistical data are collected by administrative units on different levels. By means of administrative division, a typical Chinese city consists of an urban area and several counties which consist of a small or mid-sized city (or central towns), tens of towns and extensive rural areas. The county-level city that is actually an economically developed county is an exception. The normal statistical representations are therefore 'Quian Shi' and 'Shi Qu' which refer to 'City-Wide Area' and 'City Area' respectively. And the 'City Area' actually also includes areas of land that are more or less rural in character. This results in some difficulties for research and international comparisons.

Unlike in western cities, suburbs in Chinese cities are mainly rural in the character of their land uses, with some highly focussed nodes of urban development scattered throughout the rural lands. They don't bear very much relationship to the urban area, either in their residential patterns or the way they are extended. Therefore they cannot generally be regarded as parts of the urban agglomeration. So both 'City-Wide Area' and 'City Area' are not ideal statistical units, and unfortunately, built-up area is not a recognized administrative unit on which basic data are gathered, even though it is unquestionably much better for research. Under these circumstances, sometimes the only way to do meaningful comparative urban research, is through detailed analysis of existing information which permits some reorganization of data and educated estimates where necessary.

Though the Chinese system is somewhat unique, the problems faced here with regard to specifying data on an urbanized area basis are similar to those in other cities. For example, although the US Census has a reporting category called Urbanized Areas and publishes a lot of data on this, much essential transport data do not relate readily to this, and one has to accept data for the Counties within which the urbanized areas fall as being reasonably representative. In Australia, the cities are specified as 'metropolitan statistical divisions' and include a lot of non-urban land. Urbanized land area is not readily available and there is virtually no data at all published on the basis of actual urbanized area. Urbanized land area must be gleaned from the planning authority's GIS operators in each city. In Europe it is easier to specify the urbanized land area within different metropolitan regions because there is nearly always a good land use inventory available. However, most data refer to the whole metropolitan region and it is virtually impossible, for example, to get vehicle registrations or road length or any other transport item just for the urbanized component of the region.

In summary, although there are particular data specification problems in Chinese cities, these are akin to similar problems in other cities and do not prevent a valid attempt at international comparisons. A full discussion of these methodological issues can be found in Kenworthy and Laube et al (1999).

How do Chinese cities compare in land use characteristics?

Having outlined some of the basic, though not insurmountable problems of comparing Chinese cities with other cities, the following discussion attempts to characterize Chinese cities in land use terms.

By any international standards, Chinese cities, like their other Asian neighbors, have high urban densities and are characterized by quite intensively mixed land uses in their built-up areas. Table 1 provides the urban densities for six Chinese cities ranging in size from 1 million population up to 7 million population in 1995, while Table 2 provides an international comparison of urban densities in 1990. The tables show that urban densities in the Chinese sample range from 119 to 196 per ha, with an average of 146 per ha. This is more than ten times the American and Australian cities, nearly three times the European cities, and just a bit lower on average than the urban densities of some wealthy Asian cities (Singapore, Tokyo and Hong Kong, average 164 persons per ha) and other developing Asian cities (Jakarta, Surabaya, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Seoul, average 166 per ha). It is apparent that the current urban form and land use pattern in Chinese cities is quite distinct from all western cities. Further discussion of the unique nature of urban form in Asian cities can be found in Kenworthy et al (1995).

Table 1 Urban densities in Chinese cities (persons per ha, 1995)

Source: Statistics Bureau of China (1996), Beijing Statistical Yearbook (1996), '96 Statistical Yearbook of Shanghai.

Table 2 Urban densities in American, Australian, European and Asian cities (persons per ha, 1990)

Source: Kenworthy and Laube (1996a,b); Barter and Kenworthy (2000)

Photo 1 and 2 High density and mixed land use in Beijing.

Photo 3 and 4 High density and mixed land use in Shanghai.

Photo 5 High density in Guangzhou. Photo 6 High density and mixed land
use in Guangzhou.

Photo 7 Typical pattern of land use in Chinese cities - retail, commercial
and residential land uses mixed together.

Provision for the automobile

Another key factor in automobile dependence is how well the automobile is catered for in basic transport infrastructure.

Roads: The length of road per capita in Chinese and other cities is summarized in Table 3. It shows that the Chinese cities are extremely low in this indicator compared to western cities, with only one-fortieth to one-thirtieth the road provision in Australian and American cities, one-sixth that of European cities, and much lower even than the average of other Asian cities. Furthermore, these data are for the 'City Area', as described in the previous section because of the lack of data for the actual built-up area. Road length per capita is even more constrained in the built-up area. As the comparison illustrates, present road infrastructure in Chinese cities does not favor automobile dependence. It suggests that congestion will rise rapidly as motorization proceeds.

Table 3 Comparison of road length per capita (meters)

Source: Kenworthy, J.R. et al (1997); Statistics Bureau of China (1996)

Note: (1) The reference area and population for Chinese cities are 'City Area' as described in the methodology section because of difficulty in data availability.

(2) Data for Chinese cities are for 1995, other cities are for 1990 because of data availability. Correct populations have been used in each case.

Photo 8. Wide main road consisting of motor vehicle lanes,
segregated non-motor vehicle lanes, and footpaths, in Beijing.

Photo 9. Local road in Beijing.

Photo 10. Traditional residential road in Beijing.

Parking: The number of parking spaces in the center of Chinese cities (CBD in western terminology) is a very difficult item to obtain because of lack of statistics. However, the data we have collected demonstrates enough to make a useful comparison.

According to a report of the Transport Engineering Institute of Beijing's Traffic Management Bureau, the number of parking spaces in the Beijing metropolitan area in 1995 is 38,671. It is even lower in other Chinese cities. Shanghai had only 10,468 places in its CBD in 1996 and Guangzhou 25,061 places in its metropolitan area in 1995 (Wang, 1997; Auto Weekly, 1999; TSSPSB, 1997). The number of parking spaces per 1,000 jobs in Chinese cities range from 2.5 (CBD Shanghai) to 12.6 (metropolitan Guangzhou), compared with 430 in the CBD of US cities, 522 in Australian cities, 216 in European cities, 80 in wealthy Asian cities and 183 in developing Asian cities (Kenworthy and Laube, 1996a,b). Chinese cities are indeed not yet built for the automobile, and as the data imply, it would take a total reconstruction programme to adapt them to the automobile on the scale of US and Australian cities.

Photo 11. Off-street parking is very limited in Chinese cities.

Automobile ownership and usage

The rate of motorisation in Chinese cities is increasing quite rapidly and this fact lies at the heart of this paper. Data from the Traffic Management Bureau in Beijing and Hangzhou shows that vehicle ownership per 1000 people has risen in Beijing from 23 in 1983 to 93 in 1994. In Hangzhou over the same period it rose from 15 to 37. In terms of absolute numbers, cars in Beijing in 1990 numbered 89,373 and in 1994 there were 259,921, or a threefold increase. It is important to note however, that the number of cars in actual private ownership is extremely low; the vast majority are owned by government agencies or companies. In 1990 6% of cars were in private ownership and in 1994, 10% were private. Zhou (1995) discusses in detail some of the causes of this rapid rise.

Although, these figures show the rate of automobile ownership in Chinese cities has been fairly high in recent times, it is important to stress that ownership and usage are actually still very low in an international sense. Automobile ownership per 1,000 people in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou was 43, 15, and 20 respectively in 1995 (BTMB, 1997; TSSPSB, 1997, and Statistics Bureau of Guangzhou, 1996), compared to 596 in American cities, 498 in Australian cities, 392 in European cities, 123 in developed Asian cities (Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong), and 110 in developing Asian cities (Bangkok, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Surabaya) in 1990 (Kenworthy and Laube, 1996a,b). Total private motor vehicle (car and motorcycle) kilometers per capita in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou were 1141, 743, and 1313 respectively in 1995 (Hu, 1999), compared to 11,938 in American cities, 8,020 in Australian cities, 5,026 in European cities, 2,950 in developed Asian cities and 2,425 in developing Asian cities in 1990 (Kenworthy and Laube, 1996). As can be seen from these data, compared to western cities, Chinese cities have extremely low vehicle use, and compared to other Asian cities, they are still very much lower (25% to 50% the level in other developing Asian cities).

Transport patterns

1. Modal Split:

Table 4 provides modal split in Chinese, American, Australian, European, and Asian cities. The major urban transport modes in Chinese cities are obviously still bicycles, walking, and transit. Non-motorized modes account for 69.6% of total trips while cars and motorcycles account for 5.4%, which is significantly lower even than in other Asian cities. Among the three cities, Guangzhou is the highest in private motor vehicle use. This is because the motorcycle is not controlled as much in Guangzhou as in other Chinese cities. Total VKT in cars accounts for only around one-fourth of the total car and motorcycle VKT in 1995 (Hu, 1999).

The other important point about these data is the comparatively poor use of transit in Chinese cities. This is pursued later in the paper.

Table 4 Modal Split in Chinese, American, Australian, European, and Asian Cities

Source: Hu (1999); Kenworthy and Laube (1996a,b).

Note: The modal split data for the other cities is for the journey-to-work only and is therefore not directly comparable. However, the major point remains that the Chinese cities have vastly higher use of non-motorized modes, very low use of cars and comparatively poor transit use.

1. Walking and Cycling:

Walking and cycling are still the most popular modes in Chinese cities. Cycling accounts for 49.7%, 45.1%, 34.4% and walking 11.8%, 32.8%, 35.0% in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou respectively in 1995 (Hu, 1999). Despite the fact that in some cities the authorities wish to restrict the bicycle, the number of bicycles is still steadily rising with population, with little evidence of any significant slowing down, at least not up until 1995 (Table 5). It is interesting to note that the rate of bicycle ownership in most Chinese cities in the early 1990s was in excess of typical total motor vehicle ownership rates in US cities (US cities averaged 755 total vehicles per 1000 persons in 1990, with some cities such as Denver having in excess of 1 vehicle for every person) (Kenworthy and Laube, 1996a,b).

Table 5 Number of Bicycles in Beijing and Hangzhou, 1983 -- 1994

Source: Traffic Management Bureau in Beijing and Hangzhou

However, Hook and Ernst (1999) report that in south China, the use of bicycles is falling rapidly. For example, they state that in rapidly motorizing Gungzhou, bike us dropped from 34% of total trips to 24% in one decade. Pendakur (1992) and Smith (1995) discuss this issue in more detail. Modal choice in favor of the bicycle is strongly related to the trip distance and the physical condition of users. Bicycles are the most popular mode between 5 and 30 minutes travel distance, which is usual for most trips in Chinese cities.

Photo 12. Walking and bus-only street

Photo 13. Cycling for commuting. Both in Beijing. handbags and boxes can be loaded onto the bicycles.

Photo 14. Tricycle rickshaws are common in most Chinese cities

1. Public Transport:

Although public transport vehicle numbers per capita are still low, public transport passenger kilometers per capita are fairly high in Chinese mega-cities. Vehicle numbers per million population in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou in 1995 are 822, 922, and 922 (Hu,1999). The average fleet size per million people in these Chinese cities is 889 vehicles. When compared to a range of other international cities, the fleet capacity in Chinese cities is definitely on the low side. The average for 13 international cities was 2,108 (Osaka, Sydney, San Francisco, Helsinki, Atlanta, Tokyo, Berlin, Hong Kong, Manila, Melbourne, Oslo, Perth, Wellington). In addition, most of these cities have a significant higher capacity rail component as part of their vehicle numbers, whereas the Chinese cities are almost all buses, apart from in Beijing (unpublished 1995 data collected by us).

Nevertheless, the public transport passenger kilometers per capita in Beijing (5,235 in 1995) is even higher than in Hong Kong (3,784 in 1990) and Singapore (2,775 in 1990), and very close to Tokyo (5,501). Shanghai (2,339 in 1995) and Guangzhou (1,411 in 1995) are similar to European cities (1,895 in 1990) and developing Asian cities (1,667 in 1990), which in turn are much higher than American (550 in 1990) and Australian cities (926 in 1990) (Hu, 1999; Kenworthy and Laube, 1996a,b). Despite this relatively positive picture, this may partly be because of the huge number of visitors and the floating population in these three Chinese cities. Nevertheless, it is doubtlessly true that transit plays a more important role in Chinese cities than in both North American and Australian cities.

In comparing the annual passenger kilometers per vehicle and annual boardings per vehicle, it is found that they are extremely high in Chinese cities. Passenger kilometers per vehicle are 6.4 million in Beijing, 2.5 million in Shanghai, and 1.5 million in Guangzhou in 1995, while average speed is only between 12 to 15 km/h (Hu, 1999). The average passenger usage per vehicle in the three Chinese cities is 3.5 million passenger kms per vehicle. In the same sample of 13 international cities as specified above, the average was 1.8 million passenger kms per vehicle, with some less than 0.5 million. Likewise, the overall system average speed for public transport (all modes) was 30.5 km/h or approximately double the Chinese bus system speed (unpublished 1995 data collected by us).

This is consistent with the crowded situation in buses in most Chinese cities. Although the bus fleet in 640 Chinese cities was doubled in five years by 1995, it is still far below the demand. The major result of poor transit provision is that transit usage is depressed, which means the percentage of total passenger kilometers on public transport could be much higher if the services were improved to the levels found in Hong Kong, Singapore, and some European cities. What it does suggest however, is that Chinese cities are ill-prepared in terms of public transport development for the onslaught of the private car. Trips will tend to shift from non-motorized modes to cars and motorcycles if transit systems are not better developed. This will be discussed later in this paper.

Photo 15. Subway station in Beijing.

Photo 16. Subway system in Beijing.

Photo 17. Route information in subway station.

Photo 18. Directions to different roads for each exit in subway Station.

Photo 19. Buses in Beijing.

Photo 20. Minibuses in Beijing.

Photo 21. Bus information at bus stops.

Traffic Safety

The cost of road trauma in any society is a major issue, both economically and in terms of human pain and suffering. Table 6 shows the number of traffic accidents, the number of persons injured, the number of deaths in traffic accidents and the number of traffic deaths per 100,000 persons in three Chinese cities. It also shows the traffic accident fatality rates in global cities.

In an international context, deaths in traffic accidents are relatively low in Chinese cities, especially in Beijing and Shanghai. The data seem to suggest that traffic deaths tend to follow both the degree of automobile dependence and the level of development of the traffic regulatory system. In American cities with their highly developed road systems and strictly regulated traffic, traffic deaths are highest of all, due it seems to the world's highest level of exposure of the population to auto traffic (see Kenworthy and Laube, 1996a,b). As in Kuala Lumpur, Guangzhou has a high level of motorcycle ownership and use and a relatively poorly developed traffic regulatory environment and experiences high traffic deaths in comparison to European, wealthy Asian and other Chinese cities. This is despite the fact that the absolute level of automobile dependence in Guangzhou is still very low compared to American and Australian cities

Photo 22. Motorcycles in Guangzhou.

Table 6. Traffic Accidents in Chinese Cities Compared to Global Cities

Source: Statistics Bureau of China (1996); Kenworthy and Laube (1996a,b).

The situation in Chinese cities can be expected to worsen and perhaps begin to mirror the picture in the other rapidly motorizing Asian cities in this sample as more and more traffic begins to mix with the high numbers of pedestrians and cyclists. This is especially true if little or nothing is done to slow down this rate of motorization or to plan for effective harmonization of motorized and non-motorized transport (Hook and Ernst, 1999).

The comparisons here have answered the first question put forward in the beginning of this paper about how Chinese cities compare with their international counterparts. It has shown that urban form and infrastructure provision are not in favor of heavy automobile use in Chinese cities, and automobile ownership and usage are still very low even compared to their Asian neighbors. This is far from what some popular images are portraying about the development of the automobile in China, even though auto ownership growth rates are high and the automobile is still a major issue to be confronted. The next step is to look at how Chinese cities might develop in land use and transport terms as they continue to modernize and attempt to accommodate the automobile.

3. Nature of the Chinese City: Accomodating Motorization

As is well-established, the automobile city is not efficient or effective in an environmental, economic, or social sense (Newman and Kenworthy, 1999). However, for China, the issues are particularly acute because of the resource availability problem which must inevitably be confronted as automobile dependence rises.

Issue 1: Acquiring the immense amount of land and capital investment required in infrastructure to accommodate a massive automobile fleet

China does possess a vast territory, however, it is not rich in arable and inhabitable land, especially compared with the huge population. Land is actually a major limitation for China. Nevertheless, with the economy booming and rapid urbanization, even at high urban densities and with very low automobile dependence, the total amount of agricultural land has decreased significantly in the last two decades. It is reported that over 200,000 ha, including 100,000 ha of arable land, were requisitioned for construction purposes every year (People's Daily, 1996). Agricultural land reduction is already a serious problem that has occurred even during the non-motorized transport era prior to the current motorization leap.

Photo 23. Large-scale construction in Chinese cities.

If Chinese cities are to accommodate large numbers of automobiles, urban density would inevitably have to decrease greatly, with a vast demand for land for transport infrastructure including roads, parking, lower density houses, auto-orientated retail, commercial and industrial developments. With motorization, Chinese cities would begin to manifest many of the characteristics of western style suburbanization. How could Chinese cities accommodate this trend? And is it worth doing in an economic sense?

The People's Daily reported on February 6, 1996 that the Beijing Traffic Management Bureau has announced the "Public Notice for Decreasing Traffic Flow". This notice regulates that jeeps, cars and other small passenger vehicles are permitted to run only on odd or even dates during weekdays according to the last digit of the number plates (Tian and Pan, 1996). The reason behind this is to control traffic congestion. Beijing spent 309 million US dollars on roads (excluding resumption fees for land and houses) between 1990 and 1994 (Hu, 1999). Much of the road surface is now dedicated to motor vehicles, while pedestrian and cycling facilities are degraded. Hook and Ernst (1999) reported that the situation is getting worse with segregated bicycle lanes in Beijing torn out for automobiles, and other lanes blocked by parked cars. Bicycle parking space is being relocated and convenient space is being converted to car and motor cycle parking. This trend is especially evident in new commercial and retail developments. Meanwhile, traffic congestion has increased over 1,000 times a month in Beijing in 1995. The average speed of motor vehicles on the second and third ring roads, which are the widest ones in the metropolitan area, reduced from 45 km/h in 1994 to 33 km/h in 1995. And the overall average road network speed reduced to 12 km/h (Tian and Pan, 1996).

As far as land is concerned, parking is another problem in Chinese cities. It is reported that only 10-20% of private cars have their own garages in Chinese cities. More cars just park in public open space in residential areas. The cartoon below (Plate 1) is from a report which satirizes how the car occupies the living space of people (Zhu, 1996).

Some questions which must therefore logically be asked are: How many roads would have to be widened and constructed in Beijing and other cities to accommodate the massive automobile fleet if it follows the American model? How much land would be consumed by transport infrastructure and its by-product - urban sprawl? Is it economically efficient to develop automobile cities in China? Detailed answers to these question are beyond the scope of the paper. However, the data and discussion that have been presented here suggest that the answers to these questions may be painful for those holding a vision of a future China with similar levels of automobile ownership and use as those found in the west.

Plate 1. We are lucky, we live on the ground floor.
Source: People's Daily, April 9, 1996, p 10.

Photo 24. Car parking occupies footpaths and green space in residential areas.

 Photo 25. Car parking clogs residential roads.

Photo 26. Car parking occupies footpaths and traffic island on main street.

Photo 27. Bicycle parking in Chinese cities. How would Chinese cities
cope with converting each bicycle space into a car parking space?

Issue 2: The environmental impacts of automobile dependence

Some research suggests that urban air pollution has exceeded even the national standard, sometimes by a few times, in most major cities in China. With better control of coal burning in industry through investment in environmental technologies and by moving factories away from city centres, the proportion of vehicle exhaust emissions has rapidly increased. Hook and Ernst (1999) report that transport is the fastest growing source of urban air pollution and is now responsible for 80% of CO, a majority of particulates and 40% of NO_X in major cities. A study in Beijing shows that CO concentration exceeds the national standard by over 100% and NO_x is exceeded by over 50% on some main roads. A linear pollution belt can be observed along these roads, especially in the warm seasons. In Beijing 79% of HC, 80% of CO and 55% of NO_x are from vehicle exhaust emissions (Xiang, 1995).

Of course, air pollution is only one of the environmental impacts associated with burgeoning car ownership and use. Others include growing noise, major local traffic impacts in terms of severance of neighbourhoods, vibration effects on buildings and the sheer space consumption and intrusion of motor vehicles into the public realm, which adversely affects interaction in public space and traditional community in Chinese cities. Such issues constitute major tensions within a society embarking upon a new era of motorization.

Issue 3: Finding the oil needed to feed huge numbers of vehicles, and the cost of this in the next century

Table 7 shows oil reserves, production and consumption in China and the world in 1991. China's proven oil reserves are only 2.4% of global oil reserves, and the R/P (reserve/production) ratio is only 22.6. If the number of private cars increases to 13.2 million by 2010 as some have predicted, oil consumption would greatly be increased. China would have to import a significant amount of oil from the international market. According to a study by Campbell and Laherrere (1995), the global peak in cheap oil production will occur around 2000 and production capacity will then begin declining. Thereafter world oil production will halve every 25 years. Some questions, which China will therefore need to consider, are: Where would China get the vast quantity of oil required? Is it wise for China to compete with other countries for oil on the international market at a time when prices are likely to rise significantly? How much would it cost? Is it worth doing?

Considering that the per capita use of private passenger transport energy in three Chinese cities (Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing), averaged only 2,338 MJ per person in 1995 compared to 56,000 MJ in US cities in 1990, large scale motorization and auto dependence is a major energy issue for China to confront. Again, answers to these questions are likely to be painful.

Table 7. Oil reserves, production and consumption in China and the world (1991)

Source: BP Statistical Review Of World Energy, June 1992.

Note: *R/P ratio = Reserves/ Production ratio

The difference between world production and consumption are accounted for by stock changes, statistical

differences and unidentified oil (BP Statistical Review Of World Energy, June, 1992, p.8)

Issue 4: Urban livability

It might be expected that the process of motorization would begin to have a relatively large impact on the traditional, dense and compact Chinese city with its vibrant urban life and long cultural and architectural heritage. As in Europe in the 1960s, this process of declining public livability of cities may have some moderating effect on the initial rush towards motorization (e.g. see Kenworthy, 1990).

Photo 28. Street life in traditional Chinese cities.

Photo 29, Picture 30, and Picture 31
People are used to buying fresh foods on the way after work every day. They just park the bicycle and do quick shopping. The vegetables, fish, and meats are all very fresh, sometimes only hours from farms, rivers, and slaughterhouse. It is a different living style from that of western cities, which may be lost as automobile dependence increases.

Photo 32. Street life in Chinese Cities.

Photo 33. Playground in residential area.

From all the aspects examined above, automobile dependence is something that Chinese cities should approach very carefully. Nevertheless, the above evidence on potential problems still cannot assure that motorization will not occur as it did in Bangkok and as it is happening in some other Asian cities such as Kuala Lumpur (Kenworthy, 1995). So what can be seen that might make Chinese cities different from these other cities? Is there cause for hope that Chinese cities may not become "Bangkoks" ?

4. Policy Implications

Land Use Constraint by the Land Management Law

The Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China is one of the four national fundamental laws defined by the Constitution in China, which take precedence over other laws and regulations.

In chapter 1, clause 1, it states:

"According to the Constitution, this law is formulated in order to enhance land management, safeguard land's socialist public ownership, protect and exploit land resources, reasonably use the land, strictly protect the arable land, and promote social and economic sustainability."

In chapter 1, clause 3, it states:

"Very esteemed and reasonable use of the land, and strict protection of the arable land is one of the fundamental strategies of the country. Every level of local government should adopt measurements, integrate planning, tighten management, protect and exploit land resources, and restrain illegal occupying behavior on land."

The law further explains its emphasis in making strict land use planning and tightening the land management system.

The Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China is designed to prevent massive urban sprawl as has occurred in America and Australia, and also restrains excessive use of land for transport infrastructure. This is one of the major differences between Chinese cities and some other Asian cities.

Urban Planning Law and Regulations

The Urban Planning Law of the People's Republic of China is another important law that enables urban planning to be consistent with the national fundamental laws, and also ensures the implementation of urban planning principles. There are a few special regulations under the urban planning law which are important to understand.

As has been explained, Chinese cities are traditionally high density and mixed in their land use. There is no evidence to show that Chinese cities (except in remote areas) would be allowed to reduce their density to a medium or significantly low level to accommodate cars. Indicators in Tables 8, 9, and 10 explain how urban planning is controlled in China in practical terms.

Table 8 sets out the standard for per capita 'construction land' for different grades of urban development. 'Construction land' includes residential land, commercial and public facilities land, industrial and manufacturing land, warehouse land, transport and public squares land, municipal utilities land, green land, and special purpose land, as defined in the Urban Land Use Classification and Code, and the Urban Land Use Classification and Planning Land Use Standard.

According to the regulation, the planned per capita land use should be in context with both the present per capita land use level and the defined grade of the city with a permitted range in which adjustments can occur. The grade definition is specified by the Urban Land Use Classification and Planning Land Use Standard (GBJ 137-90), which is published in the State Standards of the People's Republic of China. It defines that new urban development should normally be regarded as Grade 3, but in land constrained areas, it should refer to Grade 2. For capital city and some special economic zones, such as Shenzhen and Haikao, Grade 4 is recommended. Grade 1 is usually used for old and dense central city areas where land is extremely limited.

Tables 9 and 10 provide more details in four major urban land use categories: residential land, industrial land, roads and public squares land, and green land. Table 9 gives the permitted ranges of per capita land use of the above four categories. Table 10 defines the permitted ranges of land use in each category in percentage terms.

Following the above regulatory requirements, the density of urban development in China would generally not be allowed to be lower than 100 person/ha. Newman and Kenworthy (1999) explain that 100 person per ha or more is typically associated with "walking cities", certainly not heavily auto-dependent cities.

In terms of land use for roads, the Minister of Construction rules that main roads should be between 30 and 60 metres in width, which consists of motor vehicle lanes, non-motor vehicle lanes, and footpaths. The secondary trunk routes should be between 24 and 40 metres, including 2-4 motor vehicle lanes. The local roads should be between 15 and 20 metres including 2-3 motor vehicle lanes (Ministry of Construction, 1994). The regulations also provide some options for road surface allocation for different users. It seems that footpath and non-motor vehicle lanes are usually recommended to account for half the width of main roads. Footpaths are also emphasized in lower level roads.

Table 8. Standard of Per Capita Land Use in China.

Source: State Standard of People's Republic of China. Urban Land Use Classification and Planning

Land Use Standard, Ministry of Construction, March 1, 1991.

Table 9. Permitted ranges of per capita urban land use (m²/person)

Source: State Standard of People's Republic of China. Urban Land Use Classification and

Planning Land Use Standard, Ministry of Construction, March 1, 1991.

Table 10. Permitted ranges in the percentage of urban land allocated for different uses (%)

Source: State Standard of People's Republic of China. Urban Land Use Classification and

Planning Land Use Standard, Ministry of Construction, March 1, 1991.

Environmental Law and the National Ambient Air Quality Standard

According to national environmental planning in China, the requirement of air quality in urban areas is defined as Class 2 in the national ambient air quality standard, as shown in Table 11. Although it is still difficult in some cities, the government is making efforts to meet the requirements and to ensure the regulation is more respected. In practice, air pollution in many Chinese cities is quite serious and increases in motorization make it more difficult to control. However, recently there have been some important advances in control of emissions from vehicles in Beijing, requiring more stringent emissions controls on cars manufactured in China (Hook and Ernst, 1999).

Table 11. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (GB 3095-82)

Source: Bureau of Environmental Protection of Beijing

* unit: ug/m³ (micrograms per cubic metre)

Public Transport Policy

Government reports and documents show that the Chinese government has been trying to promote public transport development, though financial difficulties have slowed down the process. A statement issued by the State Council in 1985 urges that:

"For passenger transport in big cities, the principle of developing track-transport should be adopted. It is difficult to solve the transport problem by relying on current buses, trolley buses and limited roads. Rather we must 'go up towards the sky and down underground' and realise multiple-level, multiple-structure 'stereoscopic' transport systems."

The Ministry of Construction also issued a Current Industry Policy for Carrying Out Of Urban Transport (CIPCOUT) in 1990, following the above document. The CIPCOUT further emphasizes the importance of urban public transport planning, and requires that transit be integrated into urban planning. The Ministry of Construction then formulated Design Regulations for Stops, Stations and Factories of Public Transport in order to improve the effectiveness of public transport planning. Subsidies and some priorities, including supply of fuel and other raw materials at lower prices, are given in order to maintain effective transit operations. Ownership reforms are also gradually being introduced.

As mentioned previously, the bus fleet has been doubled in five years. More importantly, new urban rail systems are about to be launched in the next decades. Although only Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai had built subways by 1995, local governments are enthusiastic about rail systems. Over twenty cities have lodged applications for rail projects in recent years, though the planning department of the central government is still cautious in ratification because of the huge amount of capital investment required, as well as the general requirement of national macroeconomic control. It is said that the central government's attitude towards rail transport can be described as "both fondness and heavy-heartedness" (City Planning Review, 1995, No. 1, p.25). However, another five cities have been recently approved rail systems, and some of them, such as Guangzhou, have commenced construction.

National urban rail transport planning is outlined in Table 12.

Table 12. Summary of rail transport projects in Chinese Cities

Source: "Rail Transport in Chinese Cities: Difficult Travel", City Planning Review, 1995, No 1, p 25.

Summary

The major evidence concerning the possibility of future growth in automobile dependence distinguishes Chinese cities from Bangkok and some other developing Asian cities, in that China has clear and strict national laws and regulations to secure the control of urban development. China's centrally planned economy, though relaxing to some extent, has its advantages in some circumstances, especially in its potential capacity to integrate planning of land use and transport in cities.

5. Towards Sustainability of Transport in Chinese Cities

Private Cars

Although the major urban policies in China intend to maintain high density and mixed land use, and to encourage walking, cycling, and public transport, as in many other places, a variety of policy conflicts always exist. Integrated transport planning and urban management are evolving in China, as they are in the west.

It is not hard to understand a government department's position, which is responsible, for example, for the national machinery industry, wanting to promote and protect a national automobile industry. A casual glance to the east reveals some of the economic successes which can flow from a healthy automobile industry.

However, the national Automobile Industry Policy, which was propounded by the former Ministry of Machinery Industry, encountered resistance from some local governments, urban planners, researchers, and other departments once it was released via the media. It was formally reviewed in a symposium organized by the Urban Sciences Association of China on March 17, 1995.

Ms Liu Jun, the director of the Department of Motor Vehicle Industry in the Ministry of Machinery Industry, addressed the initial thinking of the document. She said that automobile industry development is an inevitable result of economic growth, which has been proven from the experiences of a number of other countries in the world. She also asserted that the national economy is under pressure to choose appropriate 'pillar' industries. She quoted the case of Japan to explain that a 'large population and lack of land' is not a limitation for 'Private Car Entering Family'. Meanwhile, it is viewed as time to foster a national industry to compete with foreign companies entering the potentially vast Chinese market. Liu's opinion expresses the perceived economic and political realities behind the document.

Following Ms Liu's speech, some researchers questioned how Chinese cities could accommodate so many automobiles when present urban transport issues are already serious. Mr Zhao Jianing, a deputy director of the Department of Urban Construction in the Ministry of Construction, addressed the limitations of automobile development in Chinese cities. His speech represented the views of most planners, as well as the Ministry of Construction.

Photo 34. Pedestrians and cyclists stuck in the middle of the road.

It is obvious that opinions over the automobile are still not consistent, even among central government departments in China. Nevertheless, the automobile industry policy has become rather less prominent in the last two years with pressure from national and international organizations. The Far Eastern Economic Review reported that China had "ceased calling its car industry a 'pillar' of the economy. The move came during an annual four-day economic plenum attended by the top leadership that ended on November 24. Sources say plenum participants allowed the car industry's status to crumble after it became obvious that the goal of an affordable car for all families would mean national gridlock" (TFEER, 1996).

It can be said that car in itself is not a devil, it is a convenient means of private transport when used appropriately. The problem for China, and indeed all other nations, is how to deal with the issues raised by mass car ownership, and increasing dependence on the automobile to the excessive detriment of other modes. A proper balance of modes must be found in all cities to ensure sustainability and to protect livability.

It is estimated that, at present, over 6 million families in China have the wealth to pay for a private car, and this number will increase to 30,000,000 in 2000 (Zhu, 1996). Perhaps an ideal path for the automobile sector is to allow ownership to a medium level, while controlling the automobile's usage to a relatively low level though pricing and physical planning initiatives. It is particularly important for the Chinese government to integrate the various economic and planning policies towards the automobile at an early stage. This has been the basis of Singapore's success at controlling car ownership and use to comparatively low levels while still advancing economically. Allowing the automobile to 'escape' will make the task of rational transport development much harder.

A potential major problem that China will face in this regard is the recent World Trade Organization agreement (November 1999), in which China has been forced by western nations to accept overseas non-bank lending institutions into the country with the express purpose of providing access to credit for motor vehicle purchases (The Chinese Herald, November 22, 1999, p.5). In this sense it is somewhat ironical for western nations to express grave concerns about motorization in China, and at the same time be facilitating changes that will make this more likely to happen.

Walking and Cycling

Walking and cycling play important roles in Chinese cities. High density and mixed land use, especially with a high degree of 'work unit' provided houses, arising from the previous economic era, make non-motorized modes particularly convenient in Chinese cities. Home and work in these environments are often tightly linked.

As mentioned previously, modal choice in favour of the bicycle in Chinese cities is strongly related to trip distance and the physical condition of users. Bicycles are an ideal mode for travel between 5 and 30 minutes. Because of high density and compact urban forms, the sizes of most Chinese cities are within these travel time ranges.

Photo 35. Traffic light for cyclists.

Other reasons for the popularity of bicycles in Chinese cities are the poor provision of public transport and the low cost of bicycle operation. As discussed above, public transport is overcrowded especially in rush hours. It is reported that 52% of bus ridership in Chinese cities is in peak hours (06:30-08:30 and 16:30-18:30). Passenger boardings on buses sometimes reach 13 people per square meter in peak hours (Wang, 1995). This inevitably makes cycling the favorite mode for commuting. The government subsidized bicycle commuters in the 70's and 80's when oil supply was constrained in the country. Even at present, bicycle costs are still lower than any other mechanical modes. The price of a typical new bicycle is around US$50, half of an average month's salary, with up to ten years' life. It is also easy to maintain and to park. If door-to-door time is considered, the bicycle is usually faster than buses when making up to a 5 kilometer trip. Cycling, as a convevient and healthy mode of transport, is still likely to be extensively used in the future. On the other hand, the bicycle is inconvenient on rainy or windy days, and is apt to be stolen, so that there is a need for other options at certain times.

Photo 36. Using a plastic bag to protect the bicycle seat on a rainy day.

Integrating cycling and public transport is a feasible and effective strategy. Both these modes have their unique strengths and weaknesses. Together they can or could offer competitive performance over the private car for most trips. Better facilities such as bicycle-transit exchange hubs around transport stations in association with commercial services could attract more people to transit, convert long-distance bicycle commuters, improve transport efficiency, and therefore relieve road traffic pressure.

Photo 37. Bicycles around a subway station.

 Photo 38. Buses around a subway

On the negative side, along with previous comments, recent main road development in major Chinese cities is focussed on building overpasses for pedestrians and cyclists. This results in more difficulties, especially for children and elderly people, and also creates a lot of visual intrusion. There seems to be little doubt that Chinese cities, which have been shaped by non-motorized transport, will need to enact policies that protect the important role of these modes if they are to avoid major future problems.

Photo 39. Pedestrian overpass on the main Street.

 Photo 40. Difficulties for cyclists using overpass.

Photo 41. Difficult and dangerous conditions for children crossing the road.

Photo 42. Elderly people dare not cross the road even when the traffic light is green for walking.

Photo 43. People waiting in the middle of the road for motor vehicles to pass.

Public Transport

High densities create sufficient concentrations of activities for an effective, frequent public transport service (Newman and Kenworthy, 1996). Despite this positive land use framework in Chinese cities, providing better public transport is actually a key issue in Chinese urban transport. As discussed above, an integrated transit system could decrease cases of very heavy bicycle traffic, reduce automobile dependence, and therefore increase road efficiency. In order to realize the goal of better transit systems, some issues need to be reviewed.

Firstly, the bus fleet could be relatively easily increased in the early stages of public transport development when high capital investment for rail systems is still difficult. Limited bus capacity is one of the reasons for poor service provision. Secondly, bus priority should be given. This priority includes specified bus lanes and bus activated traffic lights. It is common in Chinese cities to see buses congested on the roads and many people waiting at stops. With priority, buses can run faster and more efficiently, which makes them more reliable and therefore more attractive. As well, it will greatly change the operating situation for the bus companies so that they will gain productivity benefits. Shanghai is developing bus corridors along the elevated main ring roads. This is expected to relieve the heavy passenger transport pressure in the city.

Photo 44. Chaotic bus conditions are common.

 Photo 45. Overcrowded buses in Chinese cities.

Photo 46. Buses caught in road congestion.

Thirdly, it is important to integrate public transport with other transport modes, as described above. This will allow a greater variety of connections to be made and greater flexibility for the non-car user.

The fourth issue is to reduce the number of staff and to make transit systems more cost-efficient. Table 13 shows the average number of staff for every bus is 12, compared to 2 to 4 in developed cities (APTA, 1991). It is suggested that savings from the large amount of salary spending could help to finance the vehicle fleet update and expansion in Chinese cities.

Table 13. Staff numbers and operational costs in bus companies in Chinese cities (1991)

Source: Public Transport Association of China (1992)

The fifth and final issue is to increase ticket prices. Chinese bus tickets are perhaps the cheapest in the world. The average rate is less than US 0.5 cents per passenger km, compared to US 1.7 cents in Manila and US 6 to 9 cents in Australia, America and Europe (Kenworthy et al, 1997). The main reason behind the low price is not the low quality of service provision but political unwillingness to do something that is likely to be unpopular.

Xiamen's success demonstrates that transit can be operated very well in Chinese cities. In this medium size city, the bus fleet was doubled, bus lines increased from 8 to 28, passenger boardings increased from 70 million to 170 million, revenue increased from CHN$1.25 million to $6.08 million, and all this happened in three years without any subsidies from the government (Zi and Gong, 1996).

In the context of the built form of Chinese cities, it seems imperative that there be continuing improvements to public transport, especially the eventual development of good urban rail systems.

4. Conclusion

The growing trend towards motorization in Chinese cities presents a number of important opportunities and challenges, both for the cities themselves and potentially for the global environment. For Chinese cities, automobiles mean a whole new way of life for the residents of the world's most populous country, offering levels of personal mobility previously unthinkable. For global car manufacturers, China offers one of the biggest markets in the world. The benefits will, however, exact a toll on the urban environment and the quality of public spaces and human interaction in Chinese cities, as the automobile has in countless other cities. Accommodating the automobile will also have big impacts on China's land supply for agriculture and on its economy through a whole range of new costs. For the global environment, China's potential demand for oil and its rising greenhouse contribution are major uncertainties.

Chinese cities need, however, to be understood in an international context before the sceptre of unbridled automobile dependence, as exhibited in the US, is accepted uncritically. When a detailed analysis of Chinese cities is carried out the data reveal urban environments of very high density and mixed use urban forms. It also reveals levels of car ownership and use that are, and will be for the foreseeable future, very low by world standards. Non-motorized transport, though under increasing threat, is still very strong and public transport, by international standards, is still reasonably healthy in usage, though significantly constrained in its fleet capacity and service levels.

Analysis of the urban planning policy context in China also reveals a strong planning tradition, which if adhered to as China liberalizes economically, will mean the cities will potentially be able to resist urban sprawl and excessive road-based infrastructure, unlike what has happened in Bangkok. The evidence points to a system that will potentially be able to exert a reasonable degree of control over motorization in a way that protects cities from the worst problems of the automobile, but allows them to progress in terms of modern transport solutions.

Critical to these planning endeavors will be the institutional capacity of China's planners and decision makers to control the use of land in ways they have done in the past and to balance investment in private transport infrastructure with healthy investments in improved bus systems and ultimately rail. It will also be essential to have strong space sharing policies that allow non-motorized modes to dwell alongside cars in a way that they can continue to flourish safely and contribute to access, mobility, energy savings, air pollution and noise reductions, and healthy urban community. At the same time, such policies will have to harmonize with China's apparent desire to have a strong automobile industry, as well as the WTO efforts to ensure that credit is freely available in China to purchase cars.

In any other country, these demands may present too many conflicts and obstacles. However, China has probably the greatest tradition in the world of centralized planning that delivers the greatest good to the greatest number of people. It is this tradition of government planning and guardianship upon which China will have to call in its efforts to balance the positives and negatives of a trend towards increasing car ownership and use. In this context, the existing massive and growing contribution to global greenhouse gases and world oil consumption made by the developed world, is presently more of a threat to global survival than potential motorization in China.

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